Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Moscow on March 5 amidst an intense military assault launched by Ankara against the Assad regime after the latter attacked Turkish military in Idlib last week.
A source close to Turkey’s decision-makers in Ankara told TRT World that Erdogan’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will be a “testing ground for us in terms of going back to the borders of Sochi agreement”.
As of now, the source added, Turkey will “continue to retaliate” against the Assad regime.
Ankara’s deadly drone campaign has changed the battlefield equation. In the last four days, Turkish armed forces have neutralised at least 2,000 Assad regime soldiers along with their allied militia members, making significant advances in Idlib and halting—in some cases reversing—the gains Damascus had made in the last few weeks.
Turkey has repeatedly asked both Russia and the Assad regime to withdraw its forces from Idlib, behind the de-escalation zones carved out in the 2018 Sochi Agreement. Turkey has been firm on withholding the sanctity of the agreement from the get-go, often warning the regime against its recent military adventures in Idlib.
As the regime violated the agreement on several occasions, refusing to pull back and put an end to its bloodletting in Idlib, Turkey announced on March 1 its fourth military operation, the Spring Shield.
Turkish-backed forces have regained several lost territories in Idlib, a direct benefit from Spring Shield. Russia, on the other hand, has maintained silence as if it has temporarily stepped out of Turkey’s way. The situation allows both Erdogan and Putin to work towards a permanent ceasefire, as Turkey has proved to the international community that with its military support of the opposition forces, the Assad regime cannot decimate Idlib.
“I wish we can make essential steps, regarding ceasefire or other steps, leading this issue to a quick conclusion,” Erdogan said on March 2, hinting toward a permanent ceasefire.
But if the diplomatic test turns negative in Moscow, Turkey will be pushed to use the military option, which means involving its land forces in pushing back the regime forces in Idlib and restoring the sanctity of the Sochi deal.
Turkey has fought PKK terrorism for decades, but it has not been targeted by any external force in decades as happened in Idlib last week. The casualties were too high and difficult to fathom. With the second biggest army in NATO, Turkey mourned the losses but also displayed immense battlefield skills, destroying many key enemy assets in the past four days.
How has the Idlib debacle come to this point?
With the launch of the Astana peace process in early 2017, Turkey has developed a strategy of de-escalation with Russians and Iranians, which have backed the Assad regime. Ankara has backed opposition forces since the beginning of the civil war.
Ankara had hoped that by establishing de-escalation zones in Idlib with the Sochi agreement and launching a constitutional process, the trio of Astana could address the brutal civil war, bringing it to an end finally.
But on the ground, the reverse has happened as the Russia-backed regime pounds civilians and fighters alike, leading to the biggest refugee crisis of the war with its winter offensive.
Many had thought that Turkey would just back off from Idlib, choosing not to confront Russians and Iran’s Shiite militias as the regime forces march toward Idlib’s interior.
However, Turkey has other plans.
“If the agreement keeps being violated, we have Plan B and Plan C,” Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said in February before Spring Shield began, indicating that Turkey will not let the Assad regime claim Idlib.
“We, on every occasion, say ‘do not force us, otherwise our Plan B and Plan C are ready’,” Akar said.
As Ankara’s warning shots fell on deaf ears in Damascus and Moscow, Turkey has slowly been reinforcing its forces alongside opposition forces in Idlib. As of this week, the number of Turkish troops exceeded 20,000.
According to various sources in Ankara, Turkey has seen its military presence in Idlib as a deterrent against Russian-backed regime aggression.
But after the deaths of at least 34 Turkish soldiers last week and with the end of February designated as a deadline for the regime pullout, Ankara’s Spring Shield began, reinforcing the opposition against regime forces.
Now if diplomacy in Moscow fails, the only viable option for Turkey could be to mobilise its land forces in a direct confrontation against the regime to claim Idlib and reinforce the de-escalation zones of the Sochi agreement around Ankara’s observation posts, ensuring the safety of civilians.
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